I'm going to start things off with a very clear disclaimer on this topic - I REALLY hope I am proved wrong but sadly, while on the basis of what we've seen from her over the last few months, Ellie Leach probably should win Strictly Come Dancing this year and I'd love her to, I have a niggling feeling she won't. And the reason - Nigel Harman.

Now, before all you fellow Strictly devotees out there start pelting me with rotten tomatoes and telling me I'm talking absolute codswallop, hear me out on this one. Nigel, the man many BBC viewers of a certain age had a major crush on in the 00s, thanks to him playing the mean and moody Dennis Rickman in EastEnders, put the cat among the pigeons in week one of Strictly 2023, with his paso doble to Smells Like Teen Spirit, alongside pro partner Katya Jones, making everyone sit up n their sofas and pay attention, as well as sending them straight to the top of the leaderboard.

For me, Nigel's paso was akin to THAT week one samba from Kelvin Fletcher in 2019 and we all know how that one ended up! Although the routine to the Nirvana classic seems like many moons ago now, I reckon there are fans out there who had Nigel as their nailed on champion because of it and, should he and Katya get to the final, the inevitable reprise of it, would, for me, likely clinch the win for them.

READ MORE: Strictly Come Dancing LIVE: Results show confirms 'shock' outcome and judges divide

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If you look at how Nigel has scored compared to his rivals since his score took a dip in the second week, it has been a very mixed bag of marks to say the least, yet he has never once yet ended up in the bottom two. While I'm not privy to any BBC voting stats, that leads me to believe that he has a lot of support out there and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been near the top or at the top of the public vote every week so far.

I, however, would, at this moment in time at least, NOT be happy with a Nigel win. For me, he has made a few too many mistakes along the way and, while arguably not deserving of the very public dressing down he had from Shirley Ballas for his week two Viennese Waltz, for me, he has never matched the heights and the power of the paso way back in September and the judges 'harsh' comments towards him are only going to spur people on to send a few votes his way even more.

I also feel that Nigel's West End experience has been conveniently overlooked by many of his fans, who, while seem happy to put Layton to the sword for his background in theatre and question whether he should even be allowed in the competition, are far more reluctant to have a conversation about Nigel treading the boards in numerous hit productions, something, that surely must finally be discussed openly in this weekend's Musicals special.

I don't want this to turn into an article purely bashing Nigel, as, while I'm, not backing him to win, he has definitely been a contender at various points in the series, with Saturday night's rumba danced with real feeling and finesse; but my biggest issue is that, based on all of his routines to date, he isn't a strong enough contender, in my opinion, to earn the Glitterball trophy.

Given she starred in one of the biggest shows on TV, ex Coronation Street actress Ellie is bound to have danced in a few school performances on her way to TV fame; for me, she epitomises what Strictly is all about, in the same way that 'non-dancers' Abbey Clancy and Stacey Dooley did, when they triumphed in 2013 and 2018 respectively.

The signs were there from Ellie and Vito in week one that they could be ones to watch, with their electric jive putting them right in the mix from the get-go and, since then, we've seen their partnership flourish week by week, to the point now, where I, hand on heart, believe, that their paso doble, American Smooth and certainly, Argentine Tango were robbed of a perfect score.

Bookmakers are shortening odds on Ellie and Vito winning all the same time and if things continue on the same trend, they look set to be one of the most hotly tipped couples in Strictly history.

I'd love the bookies to be right but, even more so after Layton and Nikita dropped into the bottom two at the weekend, I feel like a shock could be on the cards and it could be Nigel and Katya's name on the trophy by Christmas.